Dangerous Space
This is the text version of the interactive 3D documentary. 한국어
Danger ranking › Impact threats
1950 DA
Impact threats #1 · A possible impact in the year 2880 — the highest Palermo-scale rating on the entire risk table
View in 3D- Name
- 29075 (1950 DA)
- Type
- Near-Earth asteroid
- Size
- About 1.3 km across
- Distance
- 240 million km from Earth · light takes 13 min 10 s (Position on 2026-11-04 · JPL Horizons)
#1 of 2,230 on NASA/JPL’s Sentry risk table · as of 2026-11-04
The story in 2 scenes
Found, then lost for 50 years
Astronomers at Lick Observatory in the US spotted this asteroid in February 1950, but after only 17 days of watching they lost track of it. On 31 December 2000 a “new” asteroid turned out to be the same object — found again after half a century.
Why?If you only watch an asteroid for a short time, you can’t pin down its orbit, so you can’t tell where in the sky it will show up next.
What nextOnce it was found again, radar measurements sharpened the orbit. The calculations showed it will pass very close to Earth in March 2880.
See this scene in 3D →Homework for 860 years from now
It is about 1.3 km wide. NASA’s risk table puts the chance of an impact in 2880 at about 1 in 3,000. The Palermo scale, which weighs size and probability together, ranks it first on the whole list. A hit from an object this big could disturb the climate of the entire planet.
Why?For a forecast hundreds of years ahead, the deciding factor is the Yarkovsky effect: sunlight warms the asteroid’s surface, the surface gives off that heat, and the heat acts like a tiny, steady push that slowly shifts the orbit.
What nextAs more observations come in, the chance will either drop toward zero or go up. Either way there are centuries to spare — plenty of time to prepare a way to nudge it if needed.
See this scene in 3D →Sources
NASA/JPL CNEOS Sentry impact risk table · JPL Small-Body Database: 29075 · Wikipedia: 29075 1950 DA
Impact-threat rankings and probabilities follow NASA/JPL’s Sentry risk table (as of 2026-11-04). The other categories are editorial rankings using the published criteria. Distances to stars can carry large uncertainties.