Dangerous Space
This is the text version of the interactive 3D documentary. 한국어
Danger ranking › Impact threats
2008 JL3
Impact threats #3 · Seen briefly in 2008, then lost — the earliest possible impact year is 2027
View in 3D- Name
- 2008 JL3
- Type
- Near-Earth asteroid (too few observations)
- Size
- About 29 m across (estimated)
- Distance
- 200 million km from Earth · light takes 11 min 18 s (Position on 2026-11-04 · JPL Horizons)
#3 of 2,230 on NASA/JPL’s Sentry risk table · as of 2026-11-04
The story in 2 scenes
Seen for a few days, then lost
This small asteroid was observed for a short time in May 2008 and has not been confirmed since. Its chance of hitting Earth between 2027 and 2122 is calculated at about 1 in 6,000. Its position on screen is based on that old orbit, so the error is large.
Why?With only a few days of observations, the range of possible orbits is wide. The number means “we don’t know yet” more than “this is dangerous.”
What nextIf it is spotted again, the chance will most likely drop to zero. Finding lost asteroids is an important part of the watch.
See this scene in 3D →What Chelyabinsk showed us
On 15 February 2013, an asteroid about 20 m wide exploded in the sky over Chelyabinsk, Russia. The shock wave shattered windows, and nearly 1,500 people were hurt. Nobody knew it was coming.
Why?It arrived from the direction of the Sun, where telescopes scanning the night sky couldn’t see it. Objects tens of metres wide are small and dim, so they are hard to find in advance.
What nextIf 2008 JL3 hit Earth, it would probably explode in the air in a similar way. It wouldn’t dig a crater, but over a city it could cause serious damage.
See this scene in 3D →Sources
NASA/JPL CNEOS Sentry impact risk table · JPL Small-Body Database: 2008 JL3 · Wikipedia: Chelyabinsk meteor
Impact-threat rankings and probabilities follow NASA/JPL’s Sentry risk table (as of 2026-11-04). The other categories are editorial rankings using the published criteria. Distances to stars can carry large uncertainties.